The problems with Scottish independence

It would be a great shame if Scotland was to split from the UK based on the absurd perception of unfair treatment.

Earlier this week, there was uproar from Scottish nationalists as the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland report 2019 was published. The classic complaints came out. The figures not accounting for North Sea oil (they do). Scotland having to contribute to interest payments on Westminster debt (much of that debt is run up by Scotland). And so on.

There is a reason those favouring independence will say anything to discredit the figures; accepting them as broadly accurate (which they are) totally undermines the case for Scottish independence.

We now know that Scotland in the 2018-19 fiscal year ran a deficit of 7.0 per cent of GDP. We also have the figures for Wales from the GERW report – 19.4 per cent (!) of GDP. For context, if the nations states were to leave the UK and re-join the European Union post-Brexit, as advocated by the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru, they would have to join the Euro (and indeed would want to, as continued usage of Pound Sterling would not be an option). Members of the Eurozone are subject to the limitations on borrowing and debt outlines in the EU Stability and Growth Pact. The SGP limits fiscal deficits to 3 per cent per year.

Scotland would have to cut public spending (or raise taxation) by at least 4 per cent of GDP. Wales would have to close a gap of a gargantuan 16.4 per cent of GDP. Supposed Tory austerity 2010-17 saw public spending as a proportion of GDP drop by 4.5 percentage points, while the tax burden stayed roughly the same. However, England took the brunt of the spending reduction, while Scotland and Wales were allowed to increase their borrowing.

When a Scottish nationalist endorses independence, they are really calling for enforced austerity on Scotland equivalent to over half of the entire Scottish NHS budget. Welsh independence would require austerity measures of over one and a half times the entire Welsh NHS budget.

Currently, Westminster subsidises devolved governments’ budgets, allowing them to pay for high quality services using English workers’ taxes. The problems in these nations are largely driven by poor governments. It is Labour who have fractured the Welsh NHS – the only NHS in the UK to face real terms spending cuts since 2010, despite the Welsh government borrowing at an unprecedented rate thanks to the UK taxpayer. It is the SNP’s incompetence which has wrought havoc on the Scottish education system.

It would be a great shame if these nations were to split from the UK based on the absurd perception of unfair treatment. They would be inflicting difficult to repair harm on their public services and gaining little, if anything, in return.

During the Brexit campaign, it was an often-repeated myth that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU. The same fallacies are applied to independence. Let us hope they do not produce the same result.