Most deaths in Europe? Great headline, but what does it mean?
Professor Karol Sikora – who, in fact, supports the lockdown – is quite right in stating that ‘comparisons on figures are pointless for now. It’s frustrating to see this widely reported – we just don’t know.’
As the lockdown placed on Britons is due for a review on Sunday, it has been reported that our death toll – around 30,000 – is now the highest in Europe. This certainly makes for an arresting headline, but does it actually mean anything?
As much as we may seek for simple comparisons between our situation and that of others, the simple fact is that countries across Europe – and, indeed, the wider world – have measured the number of deaths differently. Some have included deaths at care homes in their total tallies, others have not. To add to the confusion, a third group of countries didn’t include these originally, but now do. In a fourth, care home deaths are only included if the deceased had tested positive for coronavirus. I have only covered variations in care-home counting, here; there are many other variables.
Professor Karol Sikora – who, in fact, supports the lockdown – is quite right in stating that ‘comparisons on figures are pointless for now. It’s frustrating to see this widely reported – we just don’t know.’
How, then, can we claim that our death rate has overtaken that of Italy (previously home to the most coronavirus deaths in Italy)? The answer is that we cannot. Alas, the press seems to pay little (or, at least, not enough) attention to this; ‘Britain has the most deaths in Europe’ receives the most hits, anyway.
This has been one measurement problem among many. Needless to say, I am no scientist. But it seems quite obvious, even to me, that not enough care has been taken in weighing the impact of the coronavirus on human life. How many times, for example, have you heard the distinction made between deaths of people with coronavirus and deaths from coronavirus? Not many, I expect. Yet this distinction is crucial.
You are even less likely to have seen reported that the number of predicted deaths from the virus has (thankfully) been – and eventually will be – far higher than the reality, or that the government’s response has been disproportionate as a result of this. Such criticisms that have come have come too late.
We have created a situation in which possibly the most significant social and political decisions of our lives are being decided not by facts and logic, but by fear. The consequences could prove to be dire.
