Blind optimism won’t get us out of this mess
The last year has taught us just how little power we have in the shaping of policy. But there are some tools we can employ. Simply being hopeful certainly won’t change a thing.
Supporters of this latest lockdown — including some who were sceptical of the first two — are hopeful that our lives will be back to normal before we know it. That the rollout of the vaccine means we are in such a different situation now than before that we will be able to leave this lockdown (and the lockdown cycle more generally) very soon. I wish this were true, but I believe that it is not.
After months of warlike rhetoric from the Government, sure that the arrival of the vaccine would banish the virus from our lives, the tone has turned rather glum.
Members of Sage, worried that those who have received their first dose of the vaccine will begin to ignore lockdown rules, and that these ‘changes in behaviour will offset the benefits of vaccination’ (minutes of December 17 meeting), have suggested there should be ‘a system of rapid alerts to allow timely intervention if adherence starts to fall’. More restrictions and tighter enforcement, in plain English.
People seem hopeful that Lockdown Three will end by April. End is not as simple a word today as it once was. I imagine the Government will ‘end’ the lockdown, and reintroduce strict ‘tier’-based restrictions across the country. (Remember that last time, only 2,000 people were placed under ‘Tier One’ restrictions, with the rest of the country ‘living’ under ‘Tier Three’ or ‘Tier Four’ restrictions — i.e. full lockdown in all but name.)
Those in control have been quite open about the likelihood of this route. The Prime Minister says that the exit from Lockdown Three will be gradual — not an ‘open sesame’ movement. England’s Chief Medical Officer admits: ‘We’re not going to move from a sudden lockdown situation to nothing, it will have to be walking backwards by degrees, testing what works’. The Health Secretary has refused to say whether people will be able to holiday abroad this year (remember people last year saying how excited they were to holiday this year…!); and Public Health England reportedly claims that it is ‘too soon’ to know when children will be able to return to school.
And so, even when this lockdown ‘ends’, life will remain roughly the same for millions across the country. This may even be the ‘best case scenario’: The Daily Telegraph yesterday reported that Sage ‘suggest ministers should prepare to reintroduce stricter lockdown measures if adherence falls’. So the situation could remain as bad as it is now for many months to come.
I am worried most by the rhetoric around ‘new variants’ of the virus.
England’s Chief Scientific Advisor said, in relation to the new ‘Brazilian strain’, that it is ‘possible the variants will get around vaccines to some extent in the future’. And, according both to the Prime Minister — who claims the easing of restrictions ‘depends on there being no new variants’ — and the Health Secretary — who likewise denies the opportunity of returning to normality if there is evidence of ‘some other new variant, in the same way that in December we discovered the new variant that caused so many new difficulties and meant that the old three-tiered system ceased to work’ — none of this is over until the virus stops mutating. But that is exactly what viruses do. By that logic, we will never leave lockdown.
Being optimistic that normality is just around the corner will get us nowhere. If you are not comfortable with the possibility of continued tough restrictions, even beyond this lockdown, then let that be known. Write to your MP as often as you can. Write letters to newspaper editors, and air your views on opinion polls. (YouGov data suggests most Britons support the restrictions. Maybe this is the case; or maybe those who don’t support them believe polling to be useless and so don’t bother taking part. But the political class does think they are useful — so tell it what you think.)
The last year has taught us just how little power we have in the shaping of policy. But there are some tools we can employ. Simply being hopeful certainly won’t change a thing.
This article was written off the back of a week’s worth of warnings from those in and around government about the possibility of further restrictions through 2021. The day after its publication (Wednesday 20th January), it was reported that ‘Early March has been earmarked to move the first areas out of lockdown, but only into the toughest tiers’. Members of Sage also aired further worries that the rollout of the vaccine will lead people to ‘drop their guard’, and so cause a ‘‘day before armistice’ wave of infections’ — a fitting excuse for further lockdowns.
Read William Parker’s recent, sobering article on why there will never be a ‘normal’ again for more on this topic.
