European humbling
GENERAL CHARLES DE GAULLE once famously joked of France: “How can you govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese?”
Protest after protest, strike after strike, election defeat after election defeat… the European Parliament elections proved to be the tipping point for French President Emmanuel Macron. Having witnessed his party receive less than half of the total vote tally of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Macron sent shockwaves across the nation by announcing the dissolution of the French National Assembly. The French will now return to the polls in just three weeks’ time for a fresh batch of two-round legislative elections.
Just under a decade ago, the National Rally were still deemed ‘unelectable’ by many. These election result appear to have broken the final glass ceiling. Led by the exuberant and well-dressed 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the right-wing populist party obtained a record-breaking 31.5 per cent of the vote. Meanwhile, Macron’s Renaissance party ended the night with 14.6 per cent – just ahead of the Socialist Party’s 13.8 per cent.
Marine Le Pen’s “detoxification” strategy seems to have finally paid dividends – the National Rally is no longer a taboo vote but is now of the mainstream opinion.
Tallied alongside Eric Zemmour’s Reconquer, who secured four MEPs with 5.5 per cent of the vote, the so-called ‘far-right' vote now amounts to around 40 per cent of the electorate. Astonishingly, Marine Le Pen’s party won the popular vote in every single French department outside the Paris region. Moreover, they won the popular vote in the majority of the French overseas territories.
Most interestingly, the National Rally did significantly well among young voters, amassing 26 per cent of voters aged between 18-24 (Macron’s party could only get eight per cent of them on side). This result went hand-in-hand with neighbours Germany, whose youngest voters opted for the populist-right Alternative for Germany.
For those who are only familiar with anglo politics, it may come as a big surprise to some that many European Zoomers are turning to the far-right. Without a doubt, the conversion to the right is a process that has been alimented by the combination of economic turmoil and a new wave of mass immigration. The European youth is now beginning to join the dots between a reduction in their standard of living, the housing crisis, the downward pressure on salaries and the increase in crime to mass immigration. The Zoomers are beginning to find themselves in the dangerous political category of “those who have nothing to lose” – evident by their change in voting patterns.
So, what next for Emmanuel Macron? Coming down from his ivory tower to deliver his speech, the French President looked a worn-out figure. His reaction was that of a spoiled child who had had his favourite toy broken. His message to the French people was very clear: it’s a choice between the ‘safe pair of hands’ or the extremists.
Emmanuel Macron became the fourth president in the Fifth Republic’s history to utilise Article 12 of the constitution to dissolve the French assembly. General Charles De Gaulle himself dissolved the assembly twice. Most notably, he called a fresh batch of legislative elections in 1968, following the May 1968 student riots. The French President used the dissolution of the assembly as a rallying call for the ‘silent majority’ who opposed the action. The General was to be rewarded with an increase of 119 seats for the presidential majority.
Macron’s circumstances are looking increasingly less like those of Charles De Gaulle and more like Jacques Chirac's. Indeed, the last dissolution of the French assembly came under this centre-right President in 1997. Having been elected president on an austerity platform in 1995, Chirac was becoming evermore frustrated by the general strikes that had paralysed France for three weeks. Led by his Prime Minister Alain Juppé, Chirac’s Government had tried to pass reforms on public sector pensions and the retirement age but only succeeded in mobilising France’s infamous social movements in the streets. Hoping to garner the support of his own silent majority, Chirac called for a new set of legislative elections. The gamble backfired. The centre-right coalition lost over 200 seats to various left-wing parties.
By placing his own retirement reforms on the line, Macron potentially faces the same fate.
Nobody quite knows why Emmanuel Macron called the snap elections but there are potentially two strategies being played out in the President’s mind.
Firstly, there is a world in which he genuinely believes he can win them. Despite his recent polling and the heavy European elections defeat, this feat may not be impossible. It’s worth remembering that the French legislative election is a two-round first-past-the-post system. This has often been a hindrance to the National Rally, which has struggled to convert popular votes into seats due to second-round tactical voting from the left-wing and moderate parties.
Unlike in 2022, Macron will be counting on the disunity of the left to get his party over the line. In the last election, the left ran on a join ticket, unifying the far-left Unsubmissive France, the French Communist Party, the centre-left Socialist Party, the Ecologists and various other smaller parties. Consequently, the left-wing bloc increased its total by 79 seats and denied Emmanuel Macron his majority.
Two years on, however, the likelihood of a similar joint ticket seems rather unlikely. Over the past few months, the more moderate centre-left parties have distanced themselves from the far-left over their increasingly radical views on the Israel-Palestine conflict and their failure to condemn the violent protesting from some of their activists.
The splintering of the left-wing vote could thus be the ticket to Emmanuel Macron’s recuperation.
The second possible strategy is an idea that was developed by political analyst Pierre Yves Rougeyron, even before yesterday’s election results. He believes that Macron is willing to support a potential far-right coalition government in order to save the presidency in 2027. What do I mean by that? It’s quite simple… The National Rally are likely to become the largest party at the snap elections, without securing an absolute majority. Consequently, Macron would be forced to form a new government with Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen as his prime minister. This would, in turn, cause huge social upheaval and violent protests in the streets. Indeed, many political figures on the far-left in France, such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Sandrine Rousseau, have openly stated their openness to “taking the fight to the streets”. In fact, many now joke that social upheaval has become the third round of the French presidential election.
The combination of social disturbance, parliamentary impasse and continued economic problems would lead to national chaos – thus engendering the perfect environment for a ‘centrist saviour’. Following years of populist disorder, the French would be thankful for the return of the adults in the room.
If this scenario were to come to fruition, Macron would be playing with fire.
The French President is prepared to oversee the possible collapse of his country in order to save his political project. He truly is the perfect Machiavellian archetype.
