The Democrats’ failure in Congress could cost them dearly
It has to be said that not many people could have predicted the extraordinary events that have taken place over the last few days. After pollsters crowed about a likely Biden landslide in the presidential election, along with an increased majority in the House of Representatives and a Democratic Senate, the country has been left deadlocked between the two parties. It would be fair to say that the elections represent the nature of American politics these days: highly partisan and gridlocked.
The one certainty that all pollsters and analysts had predicted about the Congressional elections was that the Democrats were going to have a landslide majority in the House of Representatives, on the back of the so-called ‘blue wave’. The Republican leadership were bracing themselves for a Jeremy Corbyn-like defeat, getting pushed so far from the threshold of a majority that it could keep the House under Democrat control until at least 2024. However, the House elections have ended with the Republicans gaining seats. The overall result means that although the House will remain in Democratic hands when the new Congress is sworn in, it is a significant setback in their efforts of locking the Republicans out of power.
The biggest fear for the Democrats is that, now that their majority is smaller, it makes them vulnerable to losing seats in the 2020 Congressional redistricting and, in turn, more likely they lose their majority in the 2022 midterms. The elections for the state legislatures that will decide the new Congressional district boundaries for the next decade have not been fully counted yet, however, in order to not be affected negatively by the incoming redistricting, the Democrats will need to pray a bit harder.
Meanwhile, the Democrats cannot keep saying it was a ‘difficult map’ for them at each round of Senate elections. If you include the last three sets of elections, it would seem the Democrats struggle to win in notionally marginal races each time. It would be fair to say that the party did not target effectively this time, as they failed to take key seats Maine, Montana and North Carolina, which would have offset the loss of Alabama and given them a Senate majority. For example, they poured money into the South Carolina race between Lindsey Graham and Jamie Harrison, which was never really on the cards. The Democrats' hatred of Graham blinded them into thinking they could win, when in reality the inelastic electorate made it an uphill battle. This was also the case in Kentucky, where Democrats again poured money into the state when incumbent Mitch McConnell was never really under threat. Wasting resources, time and activists in these two races cost the Democrats in the races they needed to take back the Senate.
A good example of where the party came up short was in Montana, where popular incumbent governor Steve Bullock was their candidate. Although Montana is traditionally a safe Republican seat in Presidential elections, the other Senate seat is currently held by a Democrat. This should have given Democrats the opening to take the second Montana seat and reduce the power of Mitch McConnell in upcoming legislative battles. Instead, Republican Steve Daines was re-elected by a fairly comfortable margin.
An additional missed opportunity was in Maine, a seat many Democrats thought was in the bag. Republican Susan Collins had voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh and had increasingly voted in a more conservative direction. Maine went Democrat this election cycle, as it has for the last two decades, yet Collins was re-elected for a fifth term by a margin of over 7%. Given that the Democrats have not won a Senate race in Maine in the 21st Century, questions need to be asked in order to regain what should be easy territory for them.
The Senate is not only important for ensuring that judicial appointments get ratified, but also for ratifying Joe Biden’s cabinet. After the Democrats almost scuppered a few of President Trump’s appointments, such as Betsy DeVos as Secretary for Education in 2017, Mitch McConnell and his Republican majority will neuter any progressive in the Bernie Sanders mold from being appointed to the cabinet.
This is why the two Georgia Senate seats, which are headed for a January runoff, are going to be absolutely critical for the Democrats. If they win these two races then the Senate will be deadlocked 50-50, meaning that the deciding vote of Vice President Kamala Harris will be critical in ensuring the chamber does not cause problems for the Biden administration. These two seats will be tricky for the Democrats, but given they have won the state in the Presidential election, they are going to need to plough all the resources they have into it (like they did with the 2017 Alabama special election). As they are no longer coinciding with the Presidential election, lower turnout and mobilization will come into play here. The Democrats will need to hope that the loss of the Presidency will take the wind out of Republican voters' sails in order to win double here.
