How many British servicemen is Ukraine worth?
If any hawk demanding sanctions à outrance cannot answer these questions, they are fundamentally un-serious and must be ignored.
Russia's military buildup on the Ukrainian border and diplomatic pressure have failed to secure it concessions from Ukraine, the EU or the US. Russian President Vladimir Putin has therefore signed decrees that officially recognise the Lugansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic, two breakaway Ukrainian territories, and has sent Russian regular forces into them to enforce this will – acts that break international law.
The British, EU and US governments are preparing sanctions in response to this. However, some commentators are going further, demanding we provide Ukraine with direct military support, fast track Nato and/or EU membership or impose on Russia the sort of swingeing sanctions applied to North Korea or Iran.
Ukraine appears to have become an emotive subject. It might therefore be wise to ask the Twitter and policy hawks two sobering questions.
Firstly, what price in lost British lives, and in the money that could have been spent on, say, cancer treatment or tax cuts, would you be willing to pay for direct British military support for Ukraine?
Given Britain would be hopelessly outmatched by Russian forces in the theatre, and therefore would offer little deterrence, it seems likely there would be contact with Russian armour, ground fires and air support. How many British servicemen are Lugansk and Donetsk worth?
Secondly, what economic cost are you willing to pay for sanctions?
We often talk of sanctions as a one way street. However, for a country so integrated into the European economy as Russia, this would not be the case.
The sort of harsh sanctions that might deter Russia would have a serious cost in and of themselves. Counter-sanctions could impose a further cost. For instance, with European natural gas prices currently at record levels, consumers are understandably howling at the additional cost to already tight household budgets, and industry was even before the Ukraine imbroglio shutting down capacity that has become uneconomic to run. What if gas prices were to quadruple from the current, already record prices? Russia is crucial for the global supply of food, fertilisers, nickel, aluminium, palladium and titanium, among other things. So just how many components of a modern economy are you willing to cut?
Europe would eventually find replacements, but only after a depression (not recession) that would make the 2008 Credit Crisis look like an economic blip, and at permanently higher costs. Is that worth our sense of right and wrong?
If any hawk demanding sanctions à outrance cannot answer these questions, they are fundamentally un-serious and must be ignored.
