The EU has played itself into a corner, and they only have themselves to blame

The EU’s biggest error was to be opposed to Britain exiting without a withdrawal agreement, but also doing nothing to make sure it left with one.

The Brexit turmoil continues this week in its usual politically unnerving fashion, but it’s safe to say that the events of the last few months have been the most intriguing yet.

In the heat of the moment it’s always key to look back, to see quite what it was that got us into this mess to begin with. In my assessment, the Brexit deadlock cannot be pinned down to one actor. Instead I believe it’s both down to the European Commission’s unwavering stance and to our former Prime Minister Theresa May’s willingness to give way to the European Union, being played like a fiddle in the process of the negotiations.

The EU believed they were lucky when the Withdrawal Agreement was completed after a gruelling three years. Concessions had been given on a number of fronts. The EU’s main fear – that it would lose the vast payments Britain gives, as its third biggest budget contributor – had been placated by the agreement of the withdrawal bill, standing at a staggering thirty-nine billion. The EU’s secondary fear; that the UK would undermine the single market, by advancing a new trade policy of its own, had all but been shot down by the nefarious (and savvy) backstop, drawn up around the issue of the Irish border but having an undertone of political and economic motivations.

The European Court of Justice was guaranteed to continue its jurisdiction, the power of tariff setting remained with the EU and the Political Declaration (which the EU likes to dismiss as non-binding but has very crucial implications) set out no ambitious new future for Britain, instead it promised to lock us into trade talks for a potentially long, or even endless amounts of time. This, you could say, was not any fault of the EU’s. They just played the role of the tough negotiator, getting exactly what they wanted, when they wanted it. Slowly, the red lines were chipped away (as Steve Baker will attest from his short time in the department for exiting the EU). However, the EU made a substantial error by getting everything it wanted out the negotiations: it doomed the Withdrawal Agreement.

The Withdrawal Agreement was indigestible to the large Eurosceptic faction of the Conservative Party, and the lengthy negotiations meant the Remain MPs were becoming less and less on board with respecting the referendum result and more motivated to block any form of Brexit and instead pursuing a second referendum.

This is something both the UK and the EU did not factor in. They were so bogged down in the agreement of the withdrawal that they neglected the effort to achieve ratification, arguably the most important part of the entire process. The UK then went clambering back, but the EU maintained a dogmatic line that the Withdrawal Agreement was not up for renegotiation, and left Theresa May scrambling to pass it without offering any helping hand in the ratification.

This was the EU’s biggest error of all; it was opposed to Britain exiting without a withdrawal agreement, but it did nothing to make sure it left with one.

We all know what resulted from this and the following Article 50 extensions: a Brexiteer PM ready to rip up the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop, advocating only a new deal or No Deal at all. This was of great shock to the EU, but she was not fazed. They had seen Parliament’s antics before and believed it would stop a no deal exit, leaving Boris Johnson with no choice but to accept the morsels of ground the EU were willing to give on the Political Declaration, but accepting the same terms as his predecessor.

This is what leaves us with the current situation. The EU has stonewalled right until the last hour, believing Parliament would rescue the day but soon seeing that the situation was far graver. Boris Johnson has the power to call a snap election after Brexit and Remainer MPs have little to no chance of gaining the confidence of the House and forming this laughable ‘national unity government.’

Therefore, unless the legislative and judicial options gain ground, Britain is heading for a No Deal exit and the EU only has themselves to blame.

The job losses for Ireland, who maintain the backstop as essential, could total 85,000 and the German economy is in particular panic as the Eurozone yet again falters, leaving their economy in sure decline. Germany, being the heart of the EU, will then impact the rest of the EU meaning a No Deal exit will hit every member state while the UK continues to work around the clock to prepare for such an outcome, while EU nations fail to do the same.

It is my assessment that the EU will attempt to give ground, but it will not be ground enough to make a difference. They’ve got too used to the UK rolling over and actively avoiding a No Deal exit, but they now realise that they are dealing with a very different man in Boris Johnson. Well done to the European Commission, you’ve been played at your own game and you may end up paying the ultimate price.