Labour’s growing power will be a long-term boost for the Welsh Indy Campaign

It is clear to me that Labour’s growing power will fuel the Welsh independence movement in the long-term.

The last Assembly elections, and recent council by-elections, have exposed the growing power of Welsh Labour. The Conservatives did relatively well in the last set of assembly elections, but what surprised many was Labour’s even more impressive performance – one short of an overall majority.

To me, this was no surprise. The Covid crisis accelerated the long-term game plan of Welsh Labour: to argue for home rule for Wales. The First Minister gained the credit for the vaccination programme, and his press conferences that were ran heavily by Welsh media entrenched his image as a well-known force of government for the people of Wales.

This is changing the face of how Welsh politics operates. Now the devolved government is gaining recognition, being seen as distinctly different from the unpopular Tories in their Westminster bubble. A trend has begun, where Welsh Labour are using their power to show that Wales is more distinctive from the rest of the nation than it actually is. We’ve seen it recently with the Ukraine crisis, with Drakeford flying over to international conferences as if he has any foreign policy purview whatsoever.

The winning image for Labour, a proud Welsh party distinct from Westminster, will not end with Drakeford. This link between national identity and party politics only has one place it can lead: Welsh independence. It may seem farfetched to consider that prospect at first. After all, Plaid Cymru had a poor performance last time and the radical wings of the Welsh Indy movement have been falling out with each other.

However, Plaid (despite their weak place in the Senedd coalition) will not be the driving force of independence because they do not hold the reins of power and don’t have the broad appeal to be ever able to do so. Welsh Labour does. They have built this coalition between the middle class (champagne socialists as they may be termed) and the traditional working class that they usually win over every election cycle (helped by the strong trade union bonds inherent to modern Welsh culture).

Now, independence may not take the form of a direct referendum. Instead, the increasing power of the devolved government will inevitably lead to the question, “why don’t we have all the power?” Framed through popular arguments about empowering Wales, demands for home rule will increase and they may just achieve it. It may not be soon, maybe even decades down the line. But with the local media in their corner, an increasing sense of distinction between Wales and England, and the ability to blame all failures on Westminster, it is clear to me that Labour’s growing power will fuel the Welsh independence movement in the long-term.