US election watch: Harris on the ticket

Thus far, the Trump campaign has been unable to adequately damage Joe Biden’s ratings. Will they now have an easier target in the form of Kamala Harris?

Welcome back to Bournbrook’s regular series on the state of the US presidential race, your impartial guide to the campaign and what you can expect as election date draws near. 

On Monday, the Democratic Party will meet for its national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Originally scheduled for July, the event was delayed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, with all speakers now expected to participate remotely from across the country. The primary function of the affair remains the same, however. Joe Biden will officially become the Democratic nominee, joined by his preferred candidate for vice president. 

Accordingly, the biggest news this week was Biden’s decision to appoint Senator Kamala Harris of California as his running mate. What are the possible consequences of this pick? Read on to find out! But first… 

The state of the race 

With 80 days left until polling day, Joe Biden remains a favourite to defeat President Trump, as the Democrat leads by 8.5% in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average. He also maintains a smaller but nevertheless significant lead in the battleground states. 

That being said, there is reason to believe that the race has narrowed (albeit very slightly). Biden’s lead over Trump has decreased by half a percentage point nationally since four weeks ago but also by 1.4% in Florida, 1.3% in North Carolina and 1.2% in Pennsylvania (to name a few key states). However, these are hardly major shifts and Biden’s position remains quite solid. 

The President, for his part, has so far struggled to dig himself out of his unfavourability hole. Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at about 42%, well below what it needs to be should he hope to remain in the White House. Historically speaking, job approval has been a fairly accurate predictor of an incumbent’s share of the popular vote. And, as William Galston of the Brookings Institution points out, “no incumbent with a pre-election job approval below 48% (George W. Bush in 2004) has ever received a second term”. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has been unable to damage Joe Biden’s comparatively decent ratings, even following a recent change in advertising strategy. Will they now have an easier target in the form of Kamala Harris? 

Harris was, in many ways, the safe choice for Biden 

When choosing a running mate, presidential nominees have traditionally taken several factors into consideration. A VP pick could, for instance, be used to build bridges within the candidate’s respective party. In 2016, Trump’s decision to select Mike Pence was widely perceived as an attempt to secure the evangelical Christian vote, a vital part of the Republican coalition. Barrack Obama, who ran to the left of Hillary Clinton in the 2008 democratic primary, picked Joe Biden at least in part in an effort to reassure the party’s moderate wing. 

Then there is the fabled “home-state effect”. The idea here is to pick someone who helps the ticket geographically. Is Michigan a vital swing state this election cycle? Great, then pick a Senator from Michigan! Unfortunately, the data we have on the home-state effect suggests it to be moderate at best. There is certainly no historic precedent for a VP’s state deciding an election. 

A candidate may also pick a running mate they think will generate the most excitement. This was likely John McCain’s thinking when he chose Sarah Palin (who turned out to be a horrific liability). Or they can pick someone very boring and hope that everyone ignores them (see: Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine). Of course, electioneering and party management aside, let’s not forget that the vice president holds a vital constitutional role. Should the president die, resign or be removed from office, the vice president will assume the presidency. To that effect, one’s running mate should ideally be someone qualified for the top job, and with whom the president tends to get along. 

Amid all the speculation leading up to Biden’s decision, Kamala Harris possessed a number of advantages. 

As a former presidential candidate herself, she has already been vetted by the electorate. In other words, since Harris is already a national figure, voters know who she is and the Trump campaign will find it harder to drastically alter her perception. According to a recent Morning Consult poll, 94 per cent of voters have heard of Harris following the announcement (compared to 79 per cent before), with 45 per cent having a favourable view of the Senator (with 37 per cent unfavourable). 

In terms of party management, Harris descends broadly from the Democrats’ centre-left wing. While her progressive credentials do not quite match up to Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, Harris has a liberal Senate voting record and ran to the left of Biden in the primary. You can never please everyone in politics, but Harris was probably destined to offend the fewest Democrats (at least of those who were seriously considered for the role). 

Moreover, Harris is relatively young (at 55, she is younger than Biden by 22 years, Trump by 19 and Mike Pence by 6). And while I know that many roll their eyes when one brings up the demographic/historical significance of her candidacy (she would be the first woman and person of colour to become Vice President), there are still millions of Americans for whom that is important. Therefore, despite being a relatively safe pick, Harris remains an exciting one for much of the Democratic base (certainly if you ignore the very unrepresentative left-wing Twitter crowd). The Biden campaign claims it has raised over $34 million in two days since Harris joined the ticket. 

Sidenote: Harris also happens to be the first Democrat from West of Texas to appear on a presidential ticket. Her home state of California has produced six presidential and vice-presidential nominees, all of them Republicans (and four of them were Richard Nixon). 

While Biden hardly needs any help winning California (where Trump is down by some 32 points), there is a geographic element at play here. As you may well know, the presidency is not the only thing on the ballot in November, with Democrats hoping to keep their majority in the House of Representatives and retake the Senate. When a sitting Senator steps down, as Harris would do should her and Biden win, a replacement is chosen by the state’s governor until a special election is held (which, in this case, would be in 2022). Was Biden to pick, say, Elizabeth Warren, her replacement would have been chosen by Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker, a Republican. In California, the task falls to Gavin Newsom, a Democrat. This could be the difference as to whether Biden can rely on a Democrat-controlled Senate during his first two years in office. 

Danger ahead? 

Despite her strengths, there is a chance that Biden’s pick could ultimately hurt the Democratic ticket. Having served as both a Senator and as California’s attorney general, Harris is well qualified. However, that also means she has more baggage for Republicans to exploit. Her tenure as attorney general, and earlier as a San Francisco district attorney, does not quite match up to her liberal Senate voting record. It would indeed be strange to see the Trump campaign attack a Democrat for being too strong on law and order, although they might still try. 

Then there are the things she said about Biden himself. Expect future Trump attack ads to feature clips from the second Democratic primary debate, when Harris famously criticised him over his approach to race relations. Expect to see such ads run in states including Georgia and North Carolina, where Democratic hopes relly on high African American turnout. 

Will it work? I’m not so sure. First of all, when it comes to race, most Americans don’t exactly view President Trump as an authority on the subject. More importantly, most Democratic voters, including black voters, have already seen the debate in question, after which they voted Biden anyway. 

Finally, it is worth noting that Harris lost the Democratic primary, quite badly so. Fraught with fundraising, strategic and organisational issues, her campaign closed down shop before a single ballot had been cast. So has Biden picked a fairly lacklustre campaigner? Maybe so, although I wouldn’t rush to judgement, not least because a crowded primary field with well over a dozen candidates provides a poor comparison for November. Regardless, Harris is not going to be in charge of the Biden campaign, so the point is rather mute. 

The big picture 

If history tells us anything about vice-presidential picks, it’s that they largely don’t matter. Yet this time could be different. Not because Harris might significantly hurt or aid the Democratic ticket (she will, in all likelihood, do neither), but because her selection tells us a lot about the future direction of the party. 

First of note is that, if elected, Biden could well be a one-term president. He will be 82-years-old in January 2025 and has previously described himself as a transitional figure. To that effect, as vice president, Kamala Harris would automatically be the frontrunner to succeed him. If she assumes the presidency in 2025, we are potentially looking at twelve years of Harris in the White House (or, should Biden serve two terms, sixteen years). 

This would represent a significant victory for the party’s liberal wing, but a defeat for those advocating a more radical policy agenda. On the one hand, as noted above, Harris is not exactly a moderate. She supports legalising marijuana, boasts an “F” rating from the National Rifle Association (NRA), supports the ‘Green New Deal’ and proposed a (watered down) version of Bernie Sanders’ signature ‘Medicare for All’ plan. 

Yet she is also not quite a progressive champion akin to New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, be it on healthcare, education or the environment. The Overton window in the Democratic Party has shifted to the left in recent years, but it may be a while before Sanders fans get their much-coveted political revolution. 

With regard to identity and representation, Biden’s pick likely spells the end for two white men ever again appearing on a Democratic presidential ticket (which last happened in 2004). The party’s broad electoral coalition continues to represent the growing diversity of America as a whole. Its leadership will probably continue to reflect that.

Photo by Gage Skidmore on Flickr.