Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death and what it means for 2020
“With Mitt Romney joining the rest of the Republicans, bar two, in supporting filling the seat it seems they absolutely have the votes to confirm another justice.”
On the 18th September, Justice Ginsburg passed away, aged 87, having served as an associate justice on the Supreme Court since 1993. Upon her passing, the woefully divided country of the United States united in showing their respect for a distinguished public figure who devoted her life to serving her country. Although that unity was short lived, it cannot be denied that Justice Ginsburg is hugely admirable for her career and for the warmness she brought as a person. Now some days have passed, discussion has fiercely returned to what impact filling or not filling the absent seat will have on the 2020 Presidential Election.
Two Republican swing Senators came out right away to say they would not support filling the vacancy, and the Democrats are of course united on this front as well. This is due to the story that Ginsburg’s dying wishes were not to have the vacancy filled before the next Presidential Election. True or not, this puts the Republican majority Senate in a tough situation. If they rush to confirm a justice the move will be seen as disrespectful; the Independents and the moderates Trump needs to win 2020 will be put off by what could be seen as a cold move. However, if they leave the seat open then they are risking a Joe Biden Presidency confirming a liberal judge and preventing an iron-clad conservative majority on the Supreme Court.
In terms of numbers, at first it seemed the Republicans would struggle to fill the seat even with the Vice President’s tie breaker vote, but that situation has changed. With Mitt Romney joining the rest of the Republicans, bar two, in supporting filling the seat it seems they absolutely have the votes to confirm another justice if the nominee manages to win over the Senators they need to become the next associate justice. To make this victory more certain, they have to do it before Senate elections narrow the numbers they have in the Senate.
That being said, the radical move of ‘court packing’ - confirming more than the traditional nine justices – is now becoming a mainstream policy position. The Progressive wing of the Democratic Party, and a number of commentators, now support this action if President Trump manages to confirm another justice. To my mind, this is a terrible move that undermines the judiciary and tears up convention. Those willing that on would do well to recall Ginsburg’s own opposition to court packing.
As for who the President is likely to nominate, it is looking to be between Judge Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Logoa. The President must be careful with their nominee in order to win the support he will need to fill that seat. Either way, the Supreme Court vacancy will readily motivate voters on both sides in 2020 and have a huge impact on the race as a whole.
