The butterfly effect that will kill the Labour Party
History teaches us that decades of stability, the grandeur of a nation, and the reputation of a once-proud politician can all be effortlessly undone by a single mistake.
History teaches us that decades of stability, the grandeur of a nation, and the reputation of a once-proud politician can all be effortlessly undone by a single mistake. Indeed, our Prime Ministers are often remembered by a sole failure that overshadows their multiple successes. Lord North, for example, is remembered for having lost the American colonies, Neville Chamberlain for his cowardly appeasement of Hitler, Anthony Eden for the Suez crisis, Tony Blair for the Iraq war, and David Cameron for losing the EU referendum. Politics can truly be a cruel mistress.
According to Wikipedia’s definition, the butterfly effect explains the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. In other words, actions, which we may deem insignificant at the time, may eventually snowball into a significant consequence.
Arguably the greatest example of this theory comes with the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. With tensions across Europe already sky-high, the shooting of the heir presumptive of the Austro-Hungarian throne became the spark that lit the First World War bonfire. Astonishingly, the murder that triggered the Great War came as a result of a mundane mistake. Having themselves squandered their chance to assassinate the Archduke earlier, the Black Hand terrorists (an organisation dedicated to the separation of the Southern Slav states from the Austro-Hungarian empire) could not believe their luck when they found that Ferdinand’s driver had taken a wrong turn back onto their path. A second invitation was all that was needed. One can only speculate what would have happened if the Archduke had not mistaken his directions; even with war seeming inevitable at that point in time, the manner in which it started, along with its eventual result and consequences, may have been severely altered.
Much of contemporary England is equally defined by the human errors of its divine leaders. A notable example comes in the form of the twelfth century White Ship disaster. Having inherited a country plunged into chaos by his father the Conqueror, King Henry I cemented his place in history as the most successful Norman King of England by establishing a sophisticated government structure that introduced a royal exchequer, sending royal judges to English shires to tackle corruption, unifying England and Normandy under one crown, and granting the English barons a charter of liberties that promised to protect the common laws of Edward the Confessor and to limit royal power. Furthermore, he had secured his legacy with a fine son, William the Atheling, whom he had seen grown up into a courageous soldier and a popular Duke of Normandy.
Alas, King Henry’s fortunes were turned upside down on the eve of the coronation of his son as Atheling (heir presumptive). Awaiting its seventy-mile journey from Normandy to England, barrels of wine were rolled onto the magnificent White Ship and guests were invited to indulge. With large swathes of the Anglo-Norman royalty and elite deeply intoxicated, disaster struck. The White Ship steered straight into the path of large rocks which instantly tore the ship to pieces. Everyone on board was killed, including the future King of England. Coincidently, one person who was not on board was Henry’s nephew, Stephen, who had chosen to sail home in his ship due to an upset stomach.
Alcoholic indulgence and Stephen’s bowels thus had a profound knock-on effect on the country. The inheritance crisis that followed pulled the country into a long and miserable period of civil war and anarchy, which resulted in King Stephen conceding his son’s inherited crown to Henry II, passing the baton from the Norman to the Plantagenet dynasty. The latter ruled over England for the next 300 years and helped forge the ideas of Englishness, one which we still have today, through the introduction of charters such as the Magna Carta and our parliamentary system.
Today, it is difficult to keep count of the number of mistakes committed by Labour MPs. One mistake that is often overlooked, however, is the rebellion of ten Labour MPs during Theresa May’s indicative votes. For those of us who are not politicos, the May tenure may have already faded from our memory. However, if we cast our minds back to April 2019, we will remember that seven alternative Brexit proposals had been tabled. The most popular of these proposals was Ken Clarke’s motion which committed the Government to negotiating a comprehensive customs union between the UK and EU. Then Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, actually whipped his party into supporting the motion. Unbelievably, the Father of the House’s proposal missed out on a majority by a very narrow three votes, with ten Labour MPs choosing to defy their leader by voting against.
It seems strange to think just how close we were to passing such legislation. Were it not for a handful of People’s Vote extremists refusing any compromise, the country may have looked unrecognisable today. The passing of the bill would have triggered a Tory civil war, the initiative would have been reseized by the Europhilic Tories, and Boris Johnson may never have become our Prime Minister. Our Brexit deal as well may have been softer and resolved in parliament as opposed to via a general election, which saw the collapse of the red wall and the beginning of the end of the Labour party…
