The Conservative polling lead has narrowed, but Anneliese Dodds is the obstacle to a Labour lead

“Actually showing substance as well as a smooth style would allow Labour to capitalise over the Conservatives’ vulnerability over the economy, which is being masked by Labour’s failures in this department.”

As I discussed in my last column, one of the largest problems that is stopping Labour from building a lead in the opinion polls is the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. Sir Keir Starmer has gained small leads over Boris Johnson for the preferred Prime Minister in the opinion polls in recent months, but the Conservatives still hold a twenty per cent lead over who is more trusted to manage the economy. The Tories have held a consistently strong lead in economic trustworthiness since the 2008 Financial Crisis, but even thirteen years on the Labour Party has still not dented this impressive lead from the Conservatives.

This context can partly explain the four successive election defeats for the Labour Party since they last won in 2005. So, the blame cannot be put entirely on Anneliese Dodds since she received an awful inheritance the moment she became Shadow Chancellor. However, the preferred Prime Minister poll which the Conservatives had also led since 2008 has dried up since the election of Starmer as leader. Dodds must therefore be scrutinised for the failure to even make a dent in this Conservative lead.

When Labour was overtaken by the Conservatives on the economy in polling in 2008, this was the result of the recession that was caused by the 2008 Financial Crisis which the Conservatives were successful in blaming the Labour Party for, even though it was the fault of Lehman Brothers in America. This situation can be compared to now in that we are currently in a recession larger than any since the Great Frost of the 16th century. This economic climate, along with the undoing of the supposed gains from a decade of Conservative austerity have still shown little dent in the Conservative lead over the economy. The result of this is the framing and tactic that Dodds is currently pursuing as Shadow Chancellor.

Dodds has focused all her criticisms on competence and offering constructive opposition rather than carving out an economic agenda of her own. In a way she has pursued the exact strategy Starmer has against Johnson at the dispatch box every Wednesday, but like Starmer her strategy suffers the same problem of being uninspiring. By portraying herself as an economic auditor rather than a politician, Dodds has failed to outline an economic vision that can inspire people to swing to Labour at the next general election, just like Ed Balls and Alister Darling did before her. John McDonnell in contrast did outline a comprehensive economic vision for the future, but the problem was that it was so detailed and in depth that the public just did not believe it was achievable. Dodds needs to find a middle ground between the two styles of her predecessors in order to challenge the hegemony that Rishi Sunak seems to have in economic management currently.

Actually showing substance as well as a smooth style would allow Labour to capitalise over the Conservatives’ vulnerability over the economy, which is being masked by Labour’s failures in this department.

Dodds is perhaps one of the most intelligent people in the Parliamentary Labour Party, having achieved a PhD in Government at LSE, so there is no question that she is intellectually up to the job, but is she the right person for the job? One person who most certainly is qualified but also has the ability to easily make headlines is the current Business Secretary Ed Miliband.

Since Miliband stepped down from the leadership in 2015, he has grown into a sort of elder statesman who is popular across the Labour Party and the press; a transformation from the bacon sandwich eater into the statesman that eviscerated Johnson at the dispatch box over the Internal Market bill. Miliband worked in the Treasury for the Chancellor Gordon Brown between 1997 and his election to Parliament in 2005, meaning that he would know how to pull the levers of power in the Treasury if he ever became Chancellor. The fact that Miliband can generate press attention much more easily than Dodds should be a sign to Starmer that he would be a greater asset to the party as Chancellor; carving out a new agenda and better headlines with it could be the panacea to the Labour Party’s woes over being mistrusted on the economy.

Miliband has also started to carve out an economic philosophy from his podcast, Reasons to be Cheerful, in talking about land ownership and universal basic income. Miliband’s presence in the Treasury in the 1990s would also help quell the fear of Labour being incompetent on the economy, given that when Miliband worked there the Labour government was able to achieve a budget surplus. Starmer needs to be radical, and choosing Ed Miliband as Shadow Chancellor would be exactly that.