The minimum Labour must win to even consider some form of revival
While recent polls have suggested Johnson’s honeymoon phase in red-wall constituencies is well and truly over, I suspect that the Labour advance in these regions will be much smaller than in any other region in the country.
Following the infamous ‘Partygate’ scandals which have rocked the Government for the past few months, many have predicted an electoral apocalypse for the Conservatives today. Some, including The Daily Telegraph, have even gone as far as forecasting an 800-seat loss for ‘Boris’ Johnson.
The political chessboard in front of us, however, suggests such a hammering is near enough impossible. Indeed, the Tories find themselves defending a mere 1,400 seats and 46 councils this year, most of which are already numerically out of reach for Labour. Furthermore, these elections are urban dominated, with a whopping 40 per cent of seats up for election within London alone – an area in which Labour has recent historical success and little more to gain.
One must also remember that the English seats up this year were last contested in 2018, the year of Jeremy Corbyn’s most successful local elections in which Labour and the Liberal Democrats made very moderate gains in the South of England in the face of Theresa May’s Brexit deal palaver. As polling guru Sir John Curtice admitted, if Johnson were to be on the defence in any election, this election would be the perfect time.
Scotland
Unlike the English question, the Tories will find themselves a victim of their own success in Scotland. Indeed, the Scottish Conservatives received their best-ever set of local election result in 2017, overtaking Labour as Scotland’s main opposition party. With Johnson’s approval rate in Scotland plummeting to levels which even Prince Andrew could not dream of, now is the time to strike for Labour.
Due to the STV voting system used in Scottish local elections, achieving council majorities is a rather difficult task. In fact, all of mainland Scotland’s councils are currently under no overall control. Labour’s main task, then, will be to try to restore itself as Scotland’s second party, a feat which should easily be achieved considering the circumstances. From a more ideological perspective, Labour will be hoping to establish itself as the more moderate middle voice between the ardent nationalist SNP and unionist conservative by focusing on the everyday issues of healthcare and the cost-of-living crisis.
Wales
Much like in Scotland, the Conservatives find themselves swimming against the tide, following their best set of results in Wales in the previous election. The Tories 2017 success came to the detriment of Labour, which lost three councils and over a hundred councillors. Having gone on to lose six of its Welsh Westminster constituencies to the Tories in 2019, many thought that Labour’s domination of Welsh politics was finally coming to an end. The impressive bounce back victory at last year’s Senedd elections, however, suggested the Welsh had moved on from Brexit in contrast to their English counterparts. Mark Drakeford will be hoping to prove that last year’s success was not solely down to an incumbent bounce during the pandemic and will wish to consolidate Labour’s 2021 results.
Due to the ever-rising strength of independent candidates in Welsh local politics, Labour’s mission has been rendered more burdensome. A good night’s work for Starmer, however, would find the Labour party reclaiming Bridgend and Flintshire councils whilst recovering its position as the largest party in other important former red wall seats such as Wrexham and Denbighshire.
On the other side of the political spectrum, Labour will also be looking to eat into some of the Plaid Cymru vote in councils such as Carmarthenshire. The latter would prove that Labour has succeeded in making devolutionary governance popular through a distinctly Welsh identity- a formula which would guarantee Labour’s dominance for quite some time to come.
London and the South of England
It comes as no surprise that the capital will be Labour’s pièce de résistance for the 2022 local elections. Indeed, Labour will be hoping to steal Barnet and Wandsworth councils from the Tories. Both councils would be symbolic in their own sense.
The latter was once considered “Thatcher’s favourite council”, having first pioneered her right to buy scheme alongside having the lowest council tax rate in the country. The former, on the other hand, would have arguably turned Labour back in 2018 were it not for its high Jewish population and Jeremy Corbyn as the party’s leader.
A victory in Barnet would thus represent the first step for Sir Keir Starmer in turning the page on the anti-Semitism affair which has embroiled the Labour party for quite some time.
An exceptional night for the Labour Party would also see it take Westminster council. While a majority may be a step too far for Starmer, even running the Tories close will be very telling of the dissatisfaction felt towards Johnson’s brand of conservatism, once championed in the capital for his globalist liberal metropolitan outlook.
Elsewhere in the south, the reds will be hoping to take advantage of a recent London spill-over effect. Indeed, many previously aging cities and towns across the South of England have recently seen an influx of young liberal Londoners who can no longer bear the brunt of eye-watering rent in the capital. While many of these places may not be London itself, they have certainly become London-thinking.
Once again, the configuration of seats this election rather dampens the Labour momentum, however. While we may see a rather large swing in seats towards Sir Keir’s brand of Labour in the South, this will most likely convert into a modest gain of three councils: Southampton, Crawley and Worthing, all of which only need a seat or two to turn red. On a very good night, Labour may be pushing as far as stealing Milton Keynes, but I would not bet on that.
The Midlands and the North
From a Labour perspective, this will certainly be the most interesting area to watch. As we have been told on many occasions, these are the former red wall seats which Labour must win back if it is to have any chance of wrestling back power from the Tories.
While recent polls have suggested Johnson’s honeymoon phase in red-wall constituencies is well and truly over, I suspect that the Labour advance in these regions will be much smaller than in any other region in the country.
Unfortunately for Keir Starmer, the electoral map is de novo stacked against him. In fact, Labour finds itself rather on the defensive in this part of the country. In places like Wolverhampton and Bradford, Labour finds itself defending a double-figure number of seats. In Bury, another highly populated Jewish area, Labour is defending a very slender lead.
A satisfactory performance for the reds will arguably be reduced to simply stopping the rot in the North and Midlands- something which will come as a welcomed relief for the party’s leadership. In places such as Bolton, Peterborough and Nuneaton, Labour will be looking to push back on the gains which the Tories have made in recent elections.
In terms of concrete council gains, however, Labour will be struggling. Rossendale will certainly be a winnable target with Labour just one short of a majority going into this election. On a very good night, Labour would also be looking to take Kirklees but with the Tories defending just six seats this time round, this would certainly be a tough ask for Sir Keir’s men.
Arguably the most greatest litmus test for whether the Labour party has been able to somewhat reconcile with its Northern voters will be Newcastle-under-Lyme, which finds itself in the rare position of having every seat up for election this year. After the previous local elections, the Tories find themselves with a very slender majority of 23 seats, compared to Labour’s 18. In the 2019 general elections, the Tories won a whopping 52.5 per cent of the vote share here, up from 34.4 per cent in 2010. A victory for Labour in Newcastle would unquestionably be a cause of optimism for the Labour party.
I would suspect, however, this will be an excellent year for independent and smaller party candidates in the North of England and the Midlands.
Closing thoughts
Considering the circumstances, I would propose that a good night for the Labour Party would entail the following: reclaiming its status as the second party of Scotland, overturning its loses to the Tories in Wales, annihilating the Tories in London, pushing back on the Tory advance in the North and Midlands; a net gain of around 200-250 seats and 10-12 councils.
In my humble opinion, anything less should be considered a disappointment while anything more will certainly be an overachievement.
