US Election Watch: Refining the battleground

Should the race tighten in the final weeks, six states will likely decide the presidential election.

Photograph by Diego Cambiaso on Flickr

Welcome back to Bournbrook’s regular series on the state of the US presidential race, your impartial guide to the campaign and what you can expect as election date draws near. 

Having been discharged from hospital last week, Donald Trump has returned to the campaign trail. Yesterday, the president held in-person rallies in Florida, Georgia and New Hampshire, seeking to bolster base enthusiasm with just over two weeks until voting ends. 

On Thursday, Trump and Biden participated in rival town halls, hosted simultaneously on NBC and ABC. The events replaced what was supposed to be the second presidential debate, which ultimately fell through after Trump refused to agree to a virtual format (the Biden campaign rejected an in-person debate, citing concerns that the president could still be contagious with COVID-19). 

Meanwhile, Trump and the Republicans have seized upon a recent story published in the New York Post, which claims that Hunter Biden, younger son of the Democratic nominee, abused family connections during his work for a Ukrainian energy company, Burisma, which was the subject of an anti-corruption probe. More specifically, it alleges (via leaked emails) that Biden introduced his father (then vice president) to Vadym Pozharskyi, a senior executive at the company. 

Here is what we do know. We know that, in 2014, Hunter Biden took up a lucrative job with Burisma despite having no experience in the energy sector. Given his father was, at the time, the vice president in an administration heavily involved in Ukraine, this raised concerns over a potential conflict of interest. We know that, in 2016, the Obama/Biden administration pressured Ukraine’s government into firing its chief prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, who it claimed had not done enough to root out corruption. We know that Shokin had investigated Burisma’s owner, Mykola Zlochevsky, but that the case was dormant for more than a year when he was fired. We also know that Shokin’s removal was supported by several European governments, the IMF and Republican Senators. Furthermore, there is no evidence that Hunter Biden had acted illegally while at Burisma. 

Here is what we do not know. We don’t know if the emails unearthed by the New York Post are real. There is no metadata to prove their validity, just a screenshot of a copy. We don’t know if Joe Biden had ever met Pozharskyi or, if he did, whether this was a personal meeting or merely a brief exchange at an official event. Given we are chiefly interested in the presidential election, we don’t know whether these claims will have any impact on the race. 

Earlier this week, the Senate concluded its hearings with Amy Coney Barett, Donald Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court. Unless something very surprising occurs, Senate Republicans have both the time and the numbers to get Barett confirmed in time for the election. As a result, Joe Biden has faced increased calls (both from the press and from the Trump campaign) to clarify his position on ‘packing’ (or ‘expanding’, whichever you prefer) the Supreme Court should the Democrats win control of both the White House and Senate come November. Thus far, Biden has been vague in his intentions, presumably as he does not want to constrain his options. Whether this approach can be sustained until election day remains to be seen. 

Finally, as of this morning, over 25 million people have already voted in the presidential election. In a number of key battlegrounds, including Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin, votes cast so far now account for over 20% of 2016 turnout. 

The state of the race 

Before the first presidential debate, I noted that post-debate polling swings tend to subside in the final weeks of the campaign, as voter preferences revert back towards the mean. So far, this has not happened, as Joe Biden leads by 10.5% in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average. In fact, his national lead has ever slightly expanded since last week. Meanwhile, here is how the polls have changed in the battleground states.

Data: FiveThirtyEight

As you can see above, the evidence is somewhat inconclusive. In six states, Biden has improved his standing from last week, while Trump gained in the remaining seven. There are two things to be said about this. First, most gains (for either candidate) are small enough to disregard as noise. Second, while Trump appears to be making a small comeback (albeit not everywhere), his numbers are still worse than they were right before the debate (which were already dreadful). To that effect, Joe Biden is performing better in most battlegrounds compared to September 29th, with the exemption of Minnesota, Nevada and Ohio. 

Refining the battleground 

With Biden still leading by double digits nationally and ahead in all but two battleground states, we aren’t looking at a close election. But what if the race tightens in the final weeks? In that case, which states are most likely to put either candidate over 270 electoral college votes? 

First, let’s refresh our memory as to where the race stands relative to 2016. The table below shows how the current polling average compares to the previous election results. 

Data: FiveThirtyEight

Time to narrow it down a bit. We should begin by eliminating two states which are no longer genuinely competitive, that being Minnesota and New Hampshire. When I first outlined what I considered to be the 2020 electoral battleground, Biden led by 6.4% and 8.3% in those two, while Clinton won them by less than 2%. Biden was the favourite to win both in early September, yet a Trump upset remained very plausible. 

Now, the Democrat leads by 8.9% in Minnesota and by 11.4% in New Hampshire. While Trump can still win in either state, Biden is the overwhelming favourite. More importantly, if Trump does make a comeback here, he has likely already won the election. A scenario in which the president flips Minnesota but loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is very unlikely. 

That leaves eleven states. Next, let’s eliminate four which, while currently very competitive, would likely go to Trump if the race tightens. These are Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Have another look at the chart above. The president previously won these states by anywhere from five to nine points. Should they flip to Biden (as two of them would do if the polls are right), the election is already over. Yes, states are their own contests, but they are not wholly independent from national trends. To use a UK analogy, if it’s election night 2024 and the Conservatives have just lost Crawley, they are not getting a parliamentary majority. 

Then there is Nevada. The Silver State voted for Hillary Clinton by the widest margin (2.4%) of any 2020 battleground. Despite this, Trump appears more competitive here than in Minnesota and New Hampshire, with the president behind by ‘only’ 6.4%. To be clear, that is still a healthy Biden lead, albeit not quite as comfortable as his current standing in the Upper Midwest. It is also worth pointing out that polls have consistently underestimated Democratic support in Nevada, even in 2016. 

However, the real reason why we should probably not lose sleep over what happens here is that, with only six electoral college votes, Nevada is unlikely to make a real difference. Let’s assume that Biden succeeds in flipping only Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Trump 2016 states where he currently has the biggest lead. Even if Nevada bucks the national trend and votes for its first Republican presidential candidate since 2004, Biden still wins 272 electoral votes. No matter who triumphs here, it is very unlikely to be the ‘tipping point’. 

That finally brings us to the six core battlegrounds where the presidential election will be won or lost: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

Florida

If Trump loses in the Sunshine State, it’s almost certainly game over. With Florida’s twenty nine electoral college votes secured, Biden would only need nine more to win the White House. Those could come from any other Trump 2016 state where the Democrat is currently in the lead, except for Iowa (which only carries six votes). Furthermore, Florida (despite its status as the ultimate swing state) still leans to the right of the nation at large. Therefore, a Biden win here will likely mean pickups elsewhere. 

A recent report by Axios outlines three paths to a Trump victory, as reportedly envisaged by Campaign Manager Bill Stepien. Every single one of them relies on winning Florida. 

Both sides know just how vital this state is, which is why it has seen more campaign spending than any other battleground. Right now, Biden maintains a narrow lead, yet Democrats aren’t taking anything for granted. Still fresh is the memory of 2018 when, in an otherwise wave year for Democratic candidates, the party lost both the Senate and gubernatorial race in Florida. If Biden succeeds here, it will likely be due to the state’s huge elderly population. Once a cornerstone of Trump’s support, over 65s have shifted towards Joe Biden following concerns over the president’s handling of the coronavirus. 

Pennsylvania

Unlike Trump, Biden does not have to win Florida. Pennsylvania, however, is a different story. With twenty electoral college votes, it is the most bountiful prize to be found in the so-called ‘Rust Belt’. Trump’s victory here in 2016 was the first for a Republican in almost thirty years. For Biden, who is currently leading there by just under seven points, the Keystone state is his best insurance option should a ‘Sun Belt’ breakthrough fail to materialise. 

If Biden fails to flip Pennsylvania, his path to 270 electoral votes narrows drastically. He can still win, for instance by flipping Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nebraska’s second district, or Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. However, Trump would be the favourite at this stage. 

Michigan and Wisconsin 

Alongside Pennsylvania, these two former Democratic strongholds cemented Trump’s Rust Belt triumph over Hillary Clinton. Michigan was, in fact, the narrowest Trump victory in 2016, as he carried the Great Lakes State by 0.3%. Wisconsin, meanwhile, was where the Clinton campaign ultimately died, as the state provided her opponent with his decisive 270th electoral vote. 

Now, the two constitute Biden’s most promising targets. He leads in Michigan by 7.8% and in Wisconsin by 7.7%. Given the two are adjacent and demographically similar, a major polling error in one will likely translate across the border. On that note, Wisconsin is the battleground state where polls were off by the greatest margin four years ago. A repeat of that is relatively unlikely, given polling methodology has improved and far more polling has been conducted in both states, yet it remains a possibility. Taken together, the Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains Biden’s clearest path to victory. 

North Carolina 

Until quite recently, the Tar Heel State was reliably Republican, having voted for the party in every presidential election from 1980 to 2004. That changed in 2008, however, when (by the narrowest of margins) it picked Barack Obama over John McCain. Mitt Romney retook North Carolina for the Republicans in 2012 (and Trump beat Clinton here in 2016), but the days of GOP hegemony were over. According to analysis by FiveThirtyEight, the state has voted more and more Democratic relative to the national vote in every presidential election since 2000. 

What happened? In short, North Carolina has become increasingly urban and more college educated. The state’s rural counties, particularly those in its West, remain solidly Republican. Yet North Carolina’s expanding cities, notably Charlotte, it’s biggest, and Raleigh, the state capital, are fast becoming Democratic strongholds. 

While North Carolina is far from a must-win state for Joe Biden, his narrow lead here provides options should things go wrong elsewhere. For instance, as noted above, it could carry the Democrat to victory should Trump pull ahead in Pennsylvania. 

Arizona 

Since the Second World War, the Grand Canyon State has backed Republicans for president all but twice (Truman in 1948 and Clinton in 1996). However, like much of America’s South West, it has become increasingly Democratic. In 2016, Trump carried Arizona by less than four per cent, down about five points over the previous cycle. In 2018, Kirsten Sinema became the first Democrat to win an Arizona Senate race in thirty years. Now, Joe Biden maintains a modest lead over the president. 

With eleven electoral college votes, Arizona may prove decisive in a few scenarios. It could carry Joe Biden to victory should he win Pennsylvania but fail to break through in Michigan or Wisconsin. Like North Carolina, a Biden win here is probably not required but does expand his options. And while our focus remains upon the presidency, Arizona is key to Democratic hopes for taking back the Senate, as their candidate currently leads the Republican incumbent by a large margin.