What did Welsh Labour’s victory mean for the Union
The media paid a lot of attention to what the recent elections meant for Scotland – but what about Wales?
Cartoon by Crid.
The Welsh Senedd Elections were certainly an interesting electoral event, with Welsh Labour defying the central party’s poor performance by holding onto Government for the seventh consecutive time in a row.
The Welsh Conservatives certainly put on a good performance, with a national vote increase and a few impressive seat pick-ups despite missing a few key targets such as the Vale of Glamorgan.
Since the election, the media has focused on Wales as a simple narrative of another Labour victory, putting it in contrast to Keir Starmer’s shambolic performance in England. However, there are many more angles to be examined with these results, especially with what it signals for the Union and the relationship Wales and England will have looking forward to the next five years.
Firstly, we should analyse the reasons for Welsh Labour’s victory. The first and most obvious reason is Mark Drakeford himself. The First Minister, whose actual Government record is full of failures and broken promises, has done a fantastic job at coming across as a level-headed, sensible leader that can stand up for Wales. His old age and experience were exactly what appealed to Welsh voters, in stark contrast to the stiff and wooden personality of the Tories’ very own Andrew RT Davies.
The Covid pandemic was a golden political opportunity for the First Minister, who was initially looking at a tough election, and he ceased it well. The vaccine rollout was initially poor but picked up speed, and he was allowed to own the narrative that it was him and the Welsh Government that deserved the credit as opposed to Westminster, which procured the doses in the first place.
Just like in Scotland with the SNP, Welsh Labour made themselves seem like a fresh and new Opposition party as opposed to a Government that’s been in power for 22 years.
This leads us to the Union. Right now, devolved administrations have successfully used their platforms to blame their own failings on a lack of power. In reality, they have sweeping powers over tax, education, health, and the economy at large. Yet this goes over the heads of most voters due to the total narrative control the Welsh Government have established, making it appear as if they are restricted and need more powers to be able to deliver.
This is a simple deflection tactic for their own failings – the education and health issues that plague Wales are at the First Minister’s feet but if you ask him then it is all the fault of Boris Johnson and the English Tories.
The Welsh Conservatives did their best to highlight this fact, but they don’t want to be too far in fear of appearing opposed to devolution.
The Senedd, formerly the Welsh Assembly, has now become much more central to Welsh politics and to the Welsh people. To my mind, this is the first election that really woke people up to the powers the Welsh Government have. For astute voters, this made them realise who was to blame for the problems that plague the country. For most though, the strong narrative of a fresh-faced Labour Government was the solution they believe Wales needed.
With Mark Drakeford arguing for Welsh home rule in a nationalist fashion akin to the narratives of Plaid Cymru, the UK Government has constitutional wrangling to deal with on a Welsh front – not just with Scotland.
Either way, the UK could be heading towards a Federalist system as the calls for more powers from the constituent parts of the Union grow louder and louder.
