With Macron staying, what’s next for ‘Frexit’?
Be patient my British friends, we will join you outside of the EU prison, just not yet.
Is Frexit dead in 2022?
Looking at the results of the 2022 French presidential election, one may first think the Frexit movement is gone for good. Indeed, unlike in 2017, none of the 12 candidates campaigned on a Frexit platform. The two Frexit candidates, Florian Philippot (from Les Patriotes and ex-number two of Le Pen) and François Asselineau (from UPR), did not manage to secure 500 signatures from mayors and others and thus were not allowed to participate. Only one (Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) had a referendum on France leaving the EU in his manifesto (only after failed negotiations for a new treaty – à la David Cameron) but he only secured two per cent of the votes.
However, looking more carefuly, the global picture is very different. After Macron (27.85 per cent), the three following candidates are eurosceptics: Marine Le Pen (23.15 per cent), Mélenchon (21.95 per cent), Zemmour (7.07 per cent).
Even tough they all dismised the idea of a Frexit, their political agenda is totally incompatible with the European treaties. As it was explained by the eurofanatic journalist (though really knowledgeable in European Union shenanigans) Jean Quatremer, their election would inevitably lead to a clash with the EU, with them ultimately asking the Frexit question: Leave or Submit? The Guardian said no more, describing Le Pen’s project as a “Frexit in all but name”.
To be more specific, the three candidates refused to advocate for Frexit mostly for tactical reasons. For Marine Le Pen, It was a way to blame her 2017 failure on something else than her. Zemmour gave historical reasons: “The Brits won World War Two, they believe they can do it on their own, the elderly voted for Brexit, whereas in France, the elderly are the most in favor of the EU. I don’t beleive a Frexit candidate can win.” Lastly, one part of Melenchon’s target vote, the urban left, is europhile, so he also chose to avoid the Frexit question.
But what about the electorate?
The French have mixed feelings towards the European Union and the Euro.
According to an Ifop poll from March 2022, France is the second most eurosceptic member of the EU, with only 36 per cent having confidence in the EU (50 per cent have no confidence). Fifty per cent of the electorate think that the Euro was a bad idea. Thirt-six per cent are worried about Brusells supranationalism. Forty per cent think that the EU brought more disadvantages than advantages (versus 26 per cent the opposite)
However, only 34 per cent are in favor of France leaving the European Union.
In February 2022, a survey from Ifop revealed that 36 per cent of the electorate is in favor of a Frexit referendum. In details: 79 per cent of Melenchon supporters, 74 per cent of Marine LePen and 70 per cent of Zemmour. Even 43 per cent of Macron’s support the idea of a referendum. However, that doesn’t mean that a majority of French people support a Frexit. It could just mean that they want to discuss it and have a vote about it.
Thirty years after the Maatricht referendum in which the “Yes” won with a tiny majority (51/49), and 17 years after the clear “No” to the EU Constitution (54.5 per cent), we can see that public opinion is still spilt on the question.
Besides party politics
The Frexit movement had always been a fringe movement of ‘intellectuals’, academics, writers and so on, but for the past 15 years, we have witnessed the revival of the sovereignty and identity question amongst the youth.
It is no suprise to see great number of YouTubers defending the idea of a Frexit: Greg Tabibian (Je ne suis pas content), Tatiana Ventose, Trouble Faits, Greg Toussaint… to name a fiew.
Three political parties openly advocating for Frexit have emerged: UPR of Francois Asselineau and Les Patriotes of Florian Philippot and Generation Frexit from Charles-Henri Gallois. They gather a good number of followers and video viewings on social media.
Political think tanks such as the Cercle Aristote from Pierre-Yves Rougeyron manages to organize fully packed conferences every week and it is not rare to see young people in the crowd. They also regularly publish new sovereignist authors (from both right and left).
As we can see, there is vibrant polical activity surronding the Frexit debate.
So why doesn’t it pick up?
The big difference from the UK is that in France there is no established newspapers or magazines which have advocated for Frexit for years. In the UK you were fortunate to have The Spectator, The Daily Telegraph… even The Sun is not pro-EU. In France, we have none. Therefore, even though the Frexit movement is no longer a fringe movement, it remains outiside of the mainstream media and thus doesn’t reach much of the electorate.
Adding to that, the French bourgeoisie is much lesser patriotic than the British one. Indeed, one part of the British bourgoisie supported Brexit: some City bankers, top CEOs like that of Wetherspoons, Bernie Ecclestone from F1, celebrities such as John Cleese, Sol Campbell or Sir Michael Caine. It is uncommon for a Frenchman to say this but I envy you about that (and that only).
Also, one has to admit that the UK always had one foot in, one foot out of the EU, whereas France in a founding member, inside the Shenghen area and, even worse, using the Euro as a currency. All of this makes it a bit more difficult to convince people who are constantly bombarded by Project Fear.
What’s next?
From 2017 to 2022, Marine Le Pen (who is a terrible candidate) gained 2.5million votes and Macron lost two millions. The Covid crisis, Ukraine-Russian conflict, inflation… the coming crisis in resources and the environment all converge to one direction: the necessity to be a sovereign country able to make its own decisions for itself.
Furthermore, Macron’s electorate is based on two pillars: the bourgeoisie and the so-called boomers (often overlaping). But fifty thousand people are pushed out of the middle class each year and the boomers are not immortal.
Therefore, we have all the reason to believe that sovereignists are on the rise and will continue doing so in the future. Be patient, my British friends – we will join you outside of the EU prison, just not yet.
