Ignorant of the Shadow Peace: Lavrov’s empty nuclear threat

Only if the whole of European Russia was pillaged and conquered would Putin ever consider slamming the nuclear button.

With the Russian offensive in the Ukraine grinding to a standstill, while sanctions and retaliatory sanctions (such as the Kremlin switching off the natural gas valve to Poland and Bulgaria) are beginning to bite, it seems that a geopolitical war of words has reached its apogee.

In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has proclaimed that the West’s ever-growing supply of arms to the Ukrainian military has heightened the threat of nuclear war. Speaking to the state controlled Russian media, he remarked that the likelihood of nuclear missiles crossing borders “should not be under-estimated”.

Of course, if analysed through a purely rational and scientific lens, Lavrov’s comments are completely impartial, as an armed conflict does inevitably lead to further escalation and carnage, especially if the frontline becomes static and victory is nowhere on the horizon. However, no politician – certainly not one as skilled and cunning as Lavrov (he has, after all, retained his ministerial post for the past eighteen years) – would utter anything without purpose.

It is not Lavrov’s intention to shed light on the situation, but to strike fear into the hearts of Russia’s enemies. The eyes of the world are upon Putin’s premiership, accompanied by an avalanche of suspicion, scorn, and hatred, so Lavrov knew which audience he was truly speaking to.  

However, Lavrov, just like his master when he elected to invade his southern neighbour, has overstepped the mark completely. Only if the whole of European Russia was pillaged and conquered would Putin ever consider slamming the nuclear button; reaping a nuclear whirlwind in defeating the Ukraine is not in the Kremlin’s imagination.

The rationale for Putin’s invasion is not to restore the glory of the Tsarist empire, or that he’s a madman, but to prevent the Ukraine from being a NATO puppet state and secure Russia’s western borderlands, which has been a key geo-strategic concern for centuries. Why would the Kremlin want to fail this mission via nuclear bonfire?