Saturday morning update on Russia-Ukraine
It appears it has been far harder than Russia might have expected, but we think this will not matter and that defences will crumble.
There follows an update by Bournbrook staff on the ongoing situation in Ukraine.
There have been mistakes from the Russian side.
It is surprising how well the US intelligence services did, with the publicly leaked information, which has been right about battle plans for at least a month. (This itself raises two issues: why did the US not encourage their 'friends' to seek a settlement, when it knew this was coming? And Russians are achieving gains despite their plans being known.)
The initial missile and air attacks did not knock out the Ukrainian airforce or air defence, and that has created a lot of problems, including...
... The shooting down of two or maybe three IL-76 transport planes with over 100 Paratroopers on board last night. Russian casualties are likely high. Ukraine says over 3,000; good analysts suggest much fewer. But it's likely in the low thousands.
It seems what they tried to enact was a copy of 2014 Crimea: light troops to seize key areas to see if they can score a quick and soft victory. They didn't, and it led to those loses – it will be more by the time this is over.
But let's be serious: the US and UK would have needed 50 days of air strikes before they'd have been willing to undertake an operation like this. The Russians went straight away, and without either tactical or strategic surprise. However, the inability to shut down Ukraine's airforce, or achieve any tactical or strategic surprise, shows gaps in either their doctrine or execution or equipment or electronic intelligence.
Again, however, doing what they've done without committing fully, without surprise, against an opponent who had two months to prepare and which received considerable arms while doing so says something.
The fight for Kiev is ongoing. It seems Russia has penetrated quite far into the city. It is instructive they have got so far only five hours into day three.
Meantime, they are preparing second echelon forces, which means the pressure can continue while the first troops rest – a luxury the defenders do not have.
Overall, it appears it has been far harder than Russia might have expected, Russia has used far less force than expected, the Russian military has made mistakes, and we would say has even been reckless, but we don't think that that will matter, and that defences will crumble.