Electoral predictions

Posted 1.10am UK time

The counting has begun!

Florida is as close as ever and traditional red and blue states are falling into their expected columns. I think it’s time to write in my prediction, albeit an uncertain one.

I’ve said from the start that Joe Biden will edge a narrow victory in the Electoral College; flipping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and either edging ahead in Michigan or Arizona with a 280 electoral vote victory (give or take a few).

President Trump, to my mind, will scoop up Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio. Trump’s problem will be losing a small enough chunk of his 2016 and increased Democrat turnout. This race was never about Biden’s platform or candidacy, it’s always been a referendum on the President, and I believe Trump will end up on the backfoot. Let’s see if I’m correct!