Posted 2.22am UK time

My prediction so far:

Biden will narrowly squeeze through the 270 threshold by winning silent working-class voters and white suburban votes in Michigan and Wisconsin, even if Trump were to win Ohio and Pennsylvania. Biden is still likely to win, although narrowly, which means that he is going to have to tread cautiously for two years to ensure a stronger mandate in the midterms.

This will likely have have significant repercussions for how Biden handles moderate reforms and how he engages in international affairs. We will also see the Republicans having to ditch the Trump/Tea Party ethos altogether, most likely by appealing more to other votes in the mid west.