Afternoon update: Biden clearly favored

Posted 14.15pm UK time

Remember when we talked about the blue shift? Well, it’s happening. As expected, Trump established an initial lead in the blue wall states which Biden desperately needs to win. And as expected, his lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has narrowed in the early hours of the morning. The Democrat now leads the count in Wisconsin by about half a point. He has also taken the lead in Michigan, with approximately half a million (likely Democratic absentee votes) waiting to report. This means that, for the first time since polls closed last night, Joe Biden is ahead in enough states to win 270 electoral college votes.

Things could change of course. However, based on what we know about the outstanding vote, Biden is more likely than not to extend his lead. The president still has a shot, albeit an increasingly narrow one.