Bournbrook’s guide to election night 2020
Hello and welcome to this special edition of US Election Watch. The 2020 presidential election is almost over, with President Donald Trump fighting an uphill battle against Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Plan on staying up for the results? Here’s what you need to know.
The basics
In case you are unfamiliar with the process, this is how it goes. Unlike most of its contemporaries, the United States does not elect its president via national popular vote. Instead, candidates compete for votes in the ‘electoral college’ by winning individual states. The number of electoral college votes each state holds is determined by the size of its congressional delegation, plus two. To that effect, California has fifty-five, Florida twenty-nine, Alaska three etc.
In all but two states, the winner of the popular vote in that state gets all of its electoral votes (Nebraska and Maine allocate some of theirs on the basis of congressional districts). There are a total of 538 votes in the electoral college, with 270 required for a majority.
A very different election
The coronavirus pandemic has changed the way millions of Americans vote, and it will have serious implications for how and when the votes are counted. For the first time in history, a majority of the electorate has chosen to vote early, either in person or by mail. Due to election security measures (such as signatures), mail ballots take longer to count.
In some states, officials cannot begin the verification process until election day. Other states allow mail ballots to be verified and tabulated days or even weeks before. This has two primary implications.
Firstly, some states will take significantly longer to report near-complete results. If the election is close, this could mean waiting days (or longer, in the event of a recount) until we find out who wins. Secondly, given that Democrats have been more likely than Republicans to vote by mail, the margin between Trump and Biden could change dramatically as more votes are counted.
The ‘red mirage’ and the ‘blue shift’
As we watch the initial results come in, it is important to familiarise ourselves with two concepts, the ‘red mirage’ and the ‘blue shift’. In states which do not begin processing mail-in ballots until election day, initial results will be comprised mostly of votes cast on election day. They won’t tell us the full story.
In those states, the results we will see come in throughout the early hours of November 4th will likely break for Donald Trump, while disproportionately Democratic absentee ballots remain to be counted. This is the ‘red mirage’. As the hours and days go by, the electoral map will change in Joe Biden’s favour. In some states, the president’s early lead will narrow and eventually reverse. This is the ‘blue shift’.
However, states which get an early head start on processing mail ballots are likely to see the opposite effect. That being an initial Democratic lead (or a ‘blue mirage’) followed by a tightening in Trump’s favour (or a ‘red shift’). Now let’s look at where the electoral map stands as we wait for polls to close.
The red wall
UK readers might be familiar with the term, although Trump and Biden are obviously not fighting over Doncaster. This red wall is made up of traditionally Republican (or Republican-leaning) states in the American South, five of which are very competitive this year. They are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas.
These states are effectively must-wins for Donald Trump, given that a loss in any of them dramatically reduces his path to 270 electoral votes. According to the final FiveThirtyEight average, Biden leads by three points in Arizona, by two in Florida and by less than two per cent in Georgia and North Carolina. Trump maintains a one-point lead in Texas.
In all five states (with the possible exemption of Arizona), the race is clearly in toss-up territory. These states are also expected to report results relatively fast, as all have provisions for the early counting of mail ballots. As a result, we should expect a blue mirage, followed by a red shift.
The blue wall
As Donald Trump hopes to keep the red wall intact, Joe Biden will try to put a blue wall back together. The latter consists of four Democratic-leaning states in the Upper Midwest, three of which were won by Trump four years ago. They are Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Biden can secure all four, he is very likely to win the White House. He currently leads by eight points in Michigan and Wisconsin, by nine in Minnesota and by five per cent in Pennsylvania.
According to most forecasting models, Pennsylvania remains the most likely ‘tipping point’ state as we head into election night. In other words, it is the state most likely to put either candidate over 270 electoral votes. Alongside the relatively narrow polling margin when compared to the rest of the blue wall, the fact that both campaigns have thrown the kitchen sink at Pennsylvania (with massive advertising spend and multiple visits by each candidate) should not come as a surprise.
Compared to their counterparts in the red wall, the blue wall states do not give officials as much time to process mail ballots before election day, or no time at all in the case of Pennsylvania. Minnesota and Wisconsin are expected to have near-complete results on election night, while Michigan could be counting until Friday. Pennsylvania could take even longer.
What this means is that, should Biden fail to break through in the Red Wall, it is highly unlikely that we will know that winner on election night. All blue wall states are expected to see varying degrees of a red mirage, followed by a blue shift.
Anything else?
So glad you asked. While the above states constitute the main electoral battleground you should be watching on election night, there are four more to keep an eye on. Two of them, Iowa and Ohio, were won by Trump in 2016, while the other two, Nevada and New Hampshire, were carried by Hillary Clinton.
Trump maintains narrow leads in Iowa and Ohio. Alongside Texas, these are states which Biden should only expect to pick up if the election enters landslide territory. Meanwhile, the Democrat leads by about five points in Nevada and by eleven in New Hampshire.
Due to the order in which mail ballots are counted, Iowa is expected to see a blue shift while initial returns from Ohio will probably be too good to be true for Democrats. Both states should report most of their votes on election night, but that might not paint a complete picture should the results be close. We are also unlikely to see near-complete results from Nevada, even though the state is used to large volumes of mail-in voting. Late arriving ballots will probably favour Democrats. Finally, New Hampshire will likely be called on election night. As the state counts early and election day votes at the same time, we are unlikely to see a blue or a red shift on that basis.
And now for your election night schedule
22:30 GMT (17:30 Eastern)
Grab a coffee (or a beer) and open up the Bournbrook election live blog, where I and other members of the team will keep you up to date with the latest news and commentary. No need to rush. You’ve got an hour and a half before things get serious.
23:00 GMT (18:00 Eastern)
Polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, as we get our first results of the 2020 election. These are both solidly Republican states, so no need to get excited yet.
00:00 GMT (19:00 Eastern)
Trump’s red wall gets its first test as polls close in Florida and Georgia, alongside New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.
Pinellas County, which includes the city of St Petersburg, is arguably the best bellwether we have for Florida. It voted for Obama twice and then narrowly for Donald Trump. While Pinellas should be very close, who wins the state will also depend on the margins in firmly Republican and Democratic counties. To that effect, Trump will be hoping to maintain his thirty-nine point margin in Sumter County (which has the oldest population in the United States), while Biden will seek to improve upon Clinton’s margins in the Democratic strongholds of Broward and Miami-Dade.
In Georgia, keep an eye out for Peach County, an important bellwether where Joe Biden should be hoping to get over fifty per cent of the vote. Also, watch the Cobb and Gwinnett counties covering the Northern Atlanta suburbs. Clinton won them by about two and six points respectively. If Joe Biden is to turn Georgia blue, he will need to seriously run up the score here.
Joe Biden should be ahead in New Hampshire when the first results come in. If he is not, the Democrats are likely in for a heap of trouble.
00:30 GMT (19:30 Eastern)
Polls close in two more battleground states, North Carolina and Ohio, alongside West Virginia. In North Carolina, keep an eye out for Union County near Charlotte. This is Republican territory (Trump won it by thirty points in 2016) but Democrats are hoping to make inroads. Meanwhile, Biden will be looking to run up the score in Wake County, which went for Hillary Clinton by twenty points. As for Ohio, watch out for Wood County just South of Toledo, which Trump previously carried by eight points (identical to his statewide margin).
01:00 GMT (20:00 Eastern)
Here comes the flood. Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas.
Don’t worry, there are only three that we should care about as far as the presidency is concerned, Maine, Texas and Pennsylvania.
While Joe Biden is very likely to carry Maine, Trump will be hoping to cling on to his single electoral vote from the second congressional district.
Conversely, with thirty-eight electoral college votes, Texas is the biggest prize of any 2020 battleground state. If Joe Biden is to become the first Democrat to win it since 1968, he will need to do two things. The first is to run up his margins in the major cities, so watch out for Harris County (Houston), Bexar County (San Antonio), Travis County (Austin) and Dallas County (Dallas). The second will be to flip the suburbs. Keep an eye out for the Tarrant, Denton and Collin counties around Dallas, as well as ultra-marginal Hays County just south of Austin.
It is unlikely that we’ll have any meaningful results out of Pennsylvania tonight. However, if Joe Biden is to take back this crucial battleground, he will have to defeat Trump in places like Erie County while running up his margins in Philadelphia.
01:30 GMT (20:30 Eastern)
Polls close in solidly Republican Arkansas. Use this opportunity to get yourself another coffee.
02:00 GMT (21:00 Eastern)
Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
In Arizona, there is only one bellwether county. Encompassing the city of Phoenix and its suburbs, Maricopa is home to over sixty per cent of the state’s population and will likely decide who gets its eleven electoral votes.
In Michigan, Joe Biden will be looking to flip the Kent and Macomb counties while running up the score in Wayne County, which includes the city of Detroit. Keep an eye out for the Grant and Brown counties in neighbouring Wisconsin, which saw large swings towards Donald Trump in 2016.
Trump is almost certain to win Nebraska, however, Biden could pick up one electoral college vote by flipping the state’s second congressional district. The district consists mostly of Douglas County and the Western part of Sarpy County.
03:00 GMT (10:00 Eastern)
Polls close in the final two battleground states, Iowa and Nevada, alongside Montana, Idaho and Utah. Marshall County will likely prove a crucial bellwether for Iowa. Meanwhile, Joe Biden will win Nevada if he can match Hillary Clinton’s eleven-point margin in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and over seventy per cent of the state’s population.
04:00 GMT (23:00 Eastern)
If you are still awake, well done! Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. We’re not expecting close results in any of those states, but this is around the time when we should know if Biden has broken through in the red wall.
05:00 GMT (00:00 Eastern)
Polls close in quite red Alaska and deep blue Hawaii. Results will still be coming in from all of the above states. However, if it becomes clear that the election result will hinge on Pennsylvania, I suggest you go to bed.
