Forecasting the Senate

Posted 11am UK time

At long last, today is the day of the US Presidential election. To think that you could raise an elephant in the time the election takes, from the invisible primary all the way up to polling day in the first week of November. However, whilst all the focus is on the race for the White House, the race for control of the Senate is perhaps the most interesting. Given the polling figures over the last few months, along with all the various models by FiveThirtyEight and YouGov, it is safe to say that Biden is the favourite going into today's Presidential election. This cannot be said for either the Republicans or Democrats in the Senate elections.

With so many of the thirty-five Senate races being categorised as a toss up today, it is not surprising that both parties are nervous. Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has geared up his campaigning over this last week, with conspiracy theory style ads blaming the Democrats’ huge war chest of money on George Soros. The Republicans know that the Senate is their best chance to have influence in federal politics over the next four years. Back in August, when I wrote my first article on the Senate races going into November, my gut said that the Democrats might just miss out on securing the Senate as a result of split ticket voting in states like Maine and North Carolina. However, the collapse in support for President Trump after the first Presidential debate has led me to these final predictions across key seats the Democrats need in order to win the keys to the upper house.

Arizona (Special)

The most likely of the Sun Belt states to be secured by the Democrats today will be of huge significance for American politics in the years ahead. Arizona has followed the same sort of change in its political makeup as Virginia did between 2004 and 2008; it has gone from a place that the Republicans could always guarantee on winning into a relatively safe Democrat state. The Democrats already have one Senator elected in Arizona from the 2018 midterms, which was a significant achievement in itself as the party had not won a Senate seat there since 1988, so the tide is with them to win the second seat this year. To have a second Senator elected there would allow the Democrats to establish a foothold in the state in future Presidential elections.

Prediction: Mark Kelly (D) to defeat Martha McSally (R - Incumbent)

Georgia (Both seats)

I will admit this is perhaps my bravest prediction for tonight, as not only do I think one of the Georgian Senate seats will go Democrat, but I think the other one will do so as well. In the first Georgian seat, the incumbent David Perdue has a tough fight for re-election against Jon Ossoff, who has pulled ahead in some of the polls in recent weeks. Ossoff is likely to be joined by Democratic colleague Raphael Warnock in the other Senate contest, which is taking the form of a jungle primary as there is no incumbent running for re-election. Reasons for this are contextual to the contest and beyond, with demographic change over time benefitting the Democrats and the polling swing towards them following the televised debates. If my predictions are correct, this would be a powerful signal towards a big realignment in US politics.

Prediction: Jon Ossoff (D) to defeat David Perdue (R - Incumbent), and Raphael Warnock (D) to win the jungle primary. 

Maine 

After serving for the last 23 years continuously in the Senate for Maine, the Republican incumbent Susan Collins is very likely to bow out today. Her ‘canny operator’ style, appearing non-partisan, has helped her win re-election comfortably in the past, but her support for Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 has not been forgotten and the Democrats have made sure of it. The Democrats have campaigned mercilessly on this point and it seems to have made this state a dead certain to go Democrat today. For a Senator whose personal reputation often kept her elected, this issue-based campaign is seriously harmful to her re-election chances. This would mean that there would be no Republican Senators in the North East of the United States.

Prediction: Sara Gideon (D) to defeat Susan Collins (R - Incumbent) 

Montana 

Compared to Maine, Montana is an extremely marginal state that could go either way. Steve Daines for the Republicans has been run close by his Democrat opponent, Steve Bullock, who also happens to be the incumbent governor of Montana. Bullock’s fundraising abilities, coupled with Trump’s poor polling nationwide depressing the Republican vote in many states, means that this state has a chance of being won by the Democrats today.

Prediction: Steve Bullock (D) to defeat Steve Daines (R - Incumbent) 

North Carolina 

North Carolina is very likely to go Democrat as a result of Thom Tillis’s close alignment with Trump, hurting his support in this traditionally Republican leaning state. Cal Cunningham has been successful in painting Tillis as Trump’s man, incapable of thinking for himself, which was displayed for all to see in Tillis’s vote for Amy Coney Barrett in the week before the election. This came after him saying it was wrong to fill a Supreme Court seat in an election year back in 2016. The Democrats again have an open goal on an issue-based campaign here, highlighting Tillis as disingenuous at best, and a mouthpiece for an unpopular President Trump at worst. 

Prediction: Cal Cunningham (D) to defeat Thom Tillis (R - Incumbent) 

South Carolina

Finally, the Sun Belt state of South Carolina is the perfect illustration of the craziness that the 2020 election has become. Incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham is facing a tough fight against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, who has narrowed the gap between the two to single digits. For South Carolina, a true-red state that the Democrats have not won in a Presidential election year since 1976, the polls being this narrow is highly unprecedented. The question really is who can mobilise their voters to turn out to the polling booths today. My gut says Graham will just win, but if Biden wins a landslide today then the national swing could just help Harrison over the line. It is one key race to keep an eye on today.

Prediction: Lindsey Graham (R - Incumbent) to defeat Jaime Harrison (D)