US Election Watch
Bournbrook’s live-feed response to the 2020 US election.
Posted 2.45am UK time
I had predicted a 289 - 249 victory for Biden with the democrat challenger taking Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania whilst Trump held onto Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina. I placed a bet on Sky Bet of Biden becoming president, Trump receiving a popular vote of 45-50 per cent and an electoral college score of 200-250.
It’s looking like it could be a good pay day but Trump is outperforming the polls as always! It seems key aspects of this election have been the black vote not turning out in high numbers and Biden’s promise to move away from gas and oil extraction going down like a lead balloon in the rust belt states. If Biden does hold on, he has a hell of a job on his hands. Polls suggest that 45 per cent of people voting Democrat are voting against Trump as opposed to for Biden!
Will it come to a coin toss?
Posted 2.36am UK time
Texas is going right down to the wire in the race which decides the election for me. A Biden victory here would all but ensure he wins the electoral college, but if Texas goes to Trump I see it as close to a coin toss.
Posted 2.25am UK time
The New York Times have strengthened Trump's likelihood of winning North Carolina to ninety per cent. It is appearing to be a better night for the President than many had envisioned.
Posted 2.22am UK time
My prediction so far:
Biden will narrowly squeeze through the 270 threshold by winning silent working-class voters and white suburban votes in Michigan and Wisconsin, even if Trump were to win Ohio and Pennsylvania. Biden is still likely to win, although narrowly, which means that he is going to have to tread cautiously for two years to ensure a stronger mandate in the midterms.
This will likely have have significant repercussions for how Biden handles moderate reforms and how he engages in international affairs. We will also see the Republicans having to ditch the Trump/Tea Party ethos altogether, most likely by appealing more to other votes in the mid west.
David French: If Trump wins, he will define the GOP for the foreseeable future
Posted 2.20am UK time
From columnist Guy Denton’s recent interview with David French, Senior Editor of The Dispatch:
Posted 2.15am UK time
Quick update on where things stand: Biden is on 119 electoral votes and Trump on 94. No call yet from Florida but looks extremely likely that the president will carry it. Meanwhile, Ohio (which, as an aside, has voted with the winner of every presidential election since 1964) is so far looking quite good for Biden. Georgia and North Carolina are too close to call, but leaning towards Trump. We are soon expecting our first results in Arizona and Wisconsin. Texas is very close.
All on the rustbelt
Posted 1.40am UK time
The rustbelt is where it's going to come down to for this election, and like the 1945 Churchill-Atlee UK election Biden offers the false promise of a soft warm blanket in a crisis.
Commented here.
Posted 1.30am UK time
Two examples of some mega-swings in Joe Biden’s direction. First, Williamson County, just North of Austin, Texas. Biden is on fifty-one per cent of the vote, with about ninety-eight per cent reporting. Trump defeated Clinton there by ten points. Then there is Johnson County in Kansas, on the border with Missouri. Most of the vote is in and Biden is on fifty-eight per cent, with Trump on forty-one. The latter won Johnson by three per cent in 2016.
Posted 1.25am UK time
Looking at the results, we can see that Trump is retaining his 2016 bases like Florida. But what’s keeping the Biden camp optimistic is that we’re seeing him broadly improve on Clinton’s vote share from 2016.
This will be crucial come the end of the count. The polls within a margin of error which showed a shock Biden win in places like Florida and Georgia are turning in Trump’s favour, but it may not be enough.
Posted 1.10am UK time
A lot of Senate results have come in: Democrats hold Illinois; Virginia; New Jersey; Massachusetts; New Hampshire; Delaware; Rhode Island
Republican senate holds: Oklahoma; Tennessee; Kentucky; West Virginia. No surprises yet in the Senate races but none of the real contests are close to being declared yet
Electoral predictions
Posted 1.10am UK time
The counting has begun!
Florida is as close as ever and traditional red and blue states are falling into their expected columns. I think it’s time to write in my prediction, albeit an uncertain one.
I’ve said from the start that Joe Biden will edge a narrow victory in the Electoral College; flipping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and either edging ahead in Michigan or Arizona with a 280 electoral vote victory (give or take a few).
President Trump, to my mind, will scoop up Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio. Trump’s problem will be losing a small enough chunk of his 2016 and increased Democrat turnout. This race was never about Biden’s platform or candidacy, it’s always been a referendum on the President, and I believe Trump will end up on the backfoot. Let’s see if I’m correct!
Posted 1.05am UK time
The Democrats are struggling in Florida which feels awfully familiar to the 2018 mid term elections for Senate and Governor, when the Democrats underperformed compared to their poll predictions.
Posted 12.40am UK time
The New York Times is projecting that Trump will take West Virginia and its five electoral votes.
Posted 12.35am UK time
Not looking good for Joe Biden in Florida, as Trump takes a lead with about half of the expected vote in. More worrying for Democrats, their margins in Miami-Dade county are nowhere near where they should be. Biden is currently leading there by nine points. Clinton won it by thirty points.
Bill Kristol: A Trump victory fundamentally changes the character of the Republican Party
Posted 12.30am UK time
From columnist Guy Denton’s recent interview with Bill Krisol, Editor at Large of The Bulwark: